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The 2013–14 Australian region cyclone season was an event in the ongoing cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on 1 November 2013, and ended on 30 April 2014. The regional tropical cyclone operational plan defines a "tropical cyclone year" separately from a "tropical cyclone season"; the "tropical cyclone year" began on 1 July 2013 and ended on 30 June 2014.〔(【引用サイトリンク】publisher=WMO )〕 The scope of the Australian region is limited to all areas south of the equator, east of 90°E and west of 160°E. This area includes Australia, Papua New Guinea, western parts of the Solomon Islands, East Timor and southern parts of Indonesia.〔 Tropical cyclones in this area are monitored by five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs): the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane; TCWC Jakarta in Indonesia; and TCWC Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea.〔 The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issues unofficial warnings for the region, designating tropical depressions with the "S" suffix when they form west of 135°E, and the "P" suffix when they form east of 135°E. After two seasons with no cyclones of Category 5 intensity, this season saw two of the ten named storms reaching this level: Gillian and Ita. Of the two systems, Gillian rapidly intensified from a tropical low to a Category 5 in just 48 hours but caused only minor damage. Ita was ultimately the strongest and most intense system inside the basin and made landfall on the Far North Queensland coast near Cooktown, causing minor damage but significant flooding. In addition, significant damage was also caused by Christine in the towns of Wickham and Roebourne in Western Australia while Fletcher dumped over 1250 mm of rainfall on the Queensland town of Kowanyama, making it the fifth-wettest tropical cyclone in the country on record. ==Seasonal forecasts== Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2013. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons with ENSO neutral conditions occurring during the season.〔 The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2013–14 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.〔 At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.〔 In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2013, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year.〔 Each forecast issued took into account the current neutral ENSO conditions that were forecast to continue during the season.〔 For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 57% chance that the season would be near its average of around 11 tropical cyclones.〔 For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to or slightly below the average of 7, with a 53% chance of an above average cyclone season.〔 TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelhood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia. For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be near normal with a 55% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity.〔 The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 52% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia.〔 The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E had a 53% chance of having an above average tropical cyclone season.〔 The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W. They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation.〔 They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific.〔 As a result, they predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 48% chance of it being above average.〔 The Western region was predicted to have 56% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 47% chance of being above average.〔 During November 2013 the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), issued seasonal forecasts for the whole basin and one each for the regions to the east and west of 135°E.〔 For the overall basin they predicted that tropical cyclone activity in the entire Australian region was likely to be near normal with 13 tropical cyclones predicted to occur.〔 However, it was suggested that the season could be below average since the region had been in an inactive era since around 2000, and two of the indicators they had used to predict the season suggested below average activity.〔 For the Western region it was predicted that activity would be near normal with 9 tropical cyclones occurring, while the Eastern region was predicted to have 5 tropical cyclones occurring.〔 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「2013–14 Australian region cyclone season」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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